Measuring the Future

Intuition, action, and making space for magic.

Jun 3

Most metrics look backwards

You’ve likely heard it said: “You can’t change what you can’t measure”, and you’ve probably assumed you can only measure what has happened. This certainly feels logical.

But a focus on lag measures, the metrics about the past that we can’t change, to tell us how we are doing, means we miss something important.

I spent years doing this for clients. I helped them measure what has happened, collecting large amounts of transactional data and displaying business intelligence data in beautiful charts and interactive graphs. Don’t get me wrong, it is valuable because it can reveal trends and patterns that shine a light on the areas of operation that need to change, in order to improve the business results in the coming months or years.

These metrics look back to the past, and we can’t change them. If we sold 3,487 widgets last month, that’s it! This is why we call them lag measures.

But what if we were to ‘measure’ or track the present and future actions that we sense or intuit could create the changes we want.

“The best way to predict the future is to create it.” ~ Peter Drucker

Goals, Habits and Projects

Goals

Goals and their vision motivate and give direction to our actions.

Goals are where we want to be. They can motivate us to change what is, and put energy into what could be. Goals focus attention on a vision.

Being still and imagining what it would feel look and like to have achieved the goal, gives us energy. Whether the goal is dancing ecstatically with the love of your life, lying on a beach in Fiji, or buying a home in which to raise a family. These are things you can see in your mind’s eye, and feel the joy of, even though they haven’t happened yet.

But are they enough on their own?

James Clear, author of Atomic Habits, asks the provocative question: “If you completely ignored your goals and focused only on your system, would you still succeed?”

If you were a [insert favourite sport] coach and you ignored your goal to win a championship and focused only on what your team does at practice each day, would you still get results? I think you would. The goal in any sport is to finish with the best score, but it would be ridiculous to spend the whole game staring at the scoreboard.
The only way to actually win is to get better each day. If you want better results, then forget about setting goals. Focus on your system instead.
You do not rise to the level of your goals. You fall to the level of your systems.

Habits

Habits form the system, that can bring predictable results.

These are actions we do consistently. Some of them serve us, supporting our well-being and growth, and others do not. Consciously chosen habits are those done with a benefit in mind. Again James Clear says it well: Each [habit] is a fundamental unit that contributes to your overall improvement.

At first, these tiny routines seem insignificant, but soon they build on each other and fuel bigger wins that multiply to a degree that far outweighs the cost of their initial investment. They are both small and mighty. This is the meaning of the phrase atomic habits—a regular practice or routine that is not only small and easy to do, but also the source of incredible power; a component of the system of compound growth.

Projects

Projects with clearly stated outcomes and actions, can manifest part of the goal.

Projects require us to complete multiple actions in order to reach some clearly stated outcome. A project has a completion date - that might be desired or targeted or perhaps absolutely critical. And maybe it is Important and Not Urgent but holds the potential to lift you up out of the whirlwind of busyness and raise your life or business ‘permanently’ to the next level.

When it just all comes together

August Bradley suggests we achieve goals through either habits or projects, or a combination of the two.

Sometimes though, I feel there’s another more mysterious and non linear way of looking at goals. When the very act of intention, and of getting clear (often in writing) what I want, can imagine, and deeply desire, seems to light a spark that moves things in the universe and results in the goal being met in an unexpected and delightful way. I’ve certainly experienced this more than once! But that’s a post for another day.

Intention, backed up with actions can also allow magic to happen in unexpected ways, while focussing on the desired outcome, so . . .

Let’s start measuring the future!

The authors of The Four Disciplines of Execution (Sean Covey, Chris McChesney, and Jim Huling) guide the reader through a refreshing perspective and change the focus from lag measures to lead measures. They point out that you can quite accurately predict the numbers of a collection of present and future actions that if achieved are highly likely to result in a measurable future outcome.

This about focussing on less, and designing simple systems to track the actions that you (and your team) have decided are your best bet at influencing the desired future.

Here are the four disciplines in summary - though I highly recommend the book.

1) Focus on the Wildly Important Goal (WIG)

The WIG is a goal so important that not achieving it makes other achievements inconsequential.

Ask yourself: If every other area of our operation / my performance remained the same what is the one area where change could have the greatest impact?

The WIG can come from within the whirlwind of daily activity or be something new. First the leadership will set a WIG (EG: increase revenue from $10 million to $15 million by year end). Then ask the teams to define their own WIG’s that support it (eg improve sale conversion from 10% to 12% by year end)

WIG Rules

No team should set and focus on more than two WIG’s at the same time.
The WIGs you choose must support the organisational WIG. Don’t ask: What are all the things I must do to win this war? But ask: What are the fewest battles necessary to win this war?
Leadership can veto but not dictate what the sub WIG’s should be, because the level of engagement in creating the WIG will equal the level of commitment to achieving it.
All WIG’s must be in the form of: X to Y by when.

2) Act on the Lead Measures

Here’s where we start measuring the future, through Lead Measures. These are actions planned and taken to achieve a WIG.

Great teams invest their best efforts in those few activities that have the most impact on the WIG’s and then measure these actions. It's not a question of effort. Effort isn’t enough. If you're using the right (best) lever, the lead measures are measuring the effort on the level that is most likely to move the rock.

Ultimately the lead measures that you and your team choose are your collective best bet that moving them, will move the WIG.

Lead measures must be predictive of achieving the WIG, and we need to measure what we can influence. We will do x, y times per week. This is where intuition can be our friend.

Defining lead measures is the most difficult part of this process, as they can be counter-intuitive, and we are so used to looking at lag measures. Lean in and you’ll find them. They can look simple with a precise focus on a single behaviour.

For example if one of your team consistently achieves a certain outcome and it’s predictable that if everyone of the team could match her performance you would move the rock. Then dig in and see what they do. Find ways to emulate it, and find ways for the rest of the team measure their new actions. This ties in to the previous article: How we do it here - leveraging procedures

Two types of lead measures.

Small outcomes that focus the team on weekly or daily results but give members of the team latitude to choose their own method.
Leveraged behaviours that focus on specific behaviours.

3) Keep a Compelling Scoreboard

If you’re practicing a sport and don’t keep score the level of intensity will be relatively low. However, as soon as you start keeping score, the intensity will change. You will be emotionally engaged when you can tell if you’re winning or losing.

The purpose of the scorecard is to motivate the players to win, so the more the team is involved in designing the scoreboard, the more likely it will instil their sense of ownership.

4) Create a Cadence of Accountability

Even though you’ve designed a game that’s clear and effective, without consistent accountability the team won’t give their best efforts to the game. This is done with WIG sessions, which have a singular purpose: To refocus the team on the WIG despite the daily whirlwind.

It takes place regularly, at least weekly and sometimes more often. These sessions should be short:

Review the scoreboard and learn from successes and failures.
Report on last week’s commitments. State them and state the outcome. Were they met?
Plan the path forward by removing obstacles, and make new commitments that will raise the lead measures to the required level of performance the coming week.

I hope this inspires you to set some big goals, track some tangible habits, and define some projects that move your life and work to the next level. If this helps in any way I would love to read your comments.

James

Simplify It